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MANIFOLD
Which party will win the 2026 Texas Senate race?
236
Ṁ11kṀ140k
Jan 1
66%
James Talarico (D)
34%
Ken Paxton (R)
0%
Other

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Ṁ1,000
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Race is basically over

Paxton can’t win!

bought Ṁ50 YES

@Jack1 🤣

@Jessef0226 Collin Allred did better with white voters than Beto even though he lost by 9 and Beto only lost by 2.5

Talarico brings back Non white voters and continues to improve with white voters, it’s game over

@Jack1 Totally delusional thinking, these polls have Talarico making 30 point swings with white voters. It’s not gonna happen

I updated this market, and some others like it, to use the names of the participants for simplicity. It still resolves to the PARTY and not the person. Title remains true. I don't know if I need to comment this everywhere or if that's obvious enough -- the title clearly says the party on each market like it.

opened a Ṁ1,000 YES at 34% order

The articles of impeachment included allegations that Paxton gave preferential treatment to a political donor who bribed him, misapplied public resources and made false statements against whistleblowers, obstructed justice in the securities fraud trial against him, and made false statements regarding his financial interests.

Ken Paxton cheated on his wife

Trump has negative approval in Texas

James talarico is a decent person

@polymathematic I feel bad taking your mana 😆 but respect you live in texas and know the on the ground situation much better than me

@Jack1 😬😬

opened a Ṁ10,000 YES at 32% order

I’ve placed a big limit order at 32% for the dems @traders

@Jack1 👀

opened a Ṁ4,500 YES at 32% order

I put another order up

I assume that with the "other" outcome, this is about the party affiliation listed on the ballot, not who the winner caucuses with?