Previously nearly-universal support for Israel among the western political powers is starting to degrade. Polling in various western countries tends to indicate that a generational shift is underway. A major tipping point in this shift will be when it is no longer domestically tenable for the US to officially provide military aid for Israel (e.g. supplying them with money/missiles as a regular budget item).

Will this happen before January 1st, 2030?

Edit: The US may still maintain diplomatic relations with Israel, recognize it as a state, consider it an ally, and even provide it with other kinds of foreign aid. This question will resolve solely on official military aid supporting Israel’s ability to wage war offensively and defensively (e.g. supplying monetary assistance for the purchase of weapons, and/or supplying those weapons directly, missiles for the Iron Dome, etc). Israel purchasing American weapons at normal prices using its own money does not count as “military aid”, even if those weapons are not available for sale to other parties in whichever conflict.

Edit2: One situation which would lead to a clear “Yes” resolution would be if the “Military vs Economic” graph on https://www.foreignassistance.gov/cd/israel/ showed 0% of aid being military for a given year before 2030. However this is not a necessary condition (e.g. if all military aid is cancelled halfway through 2029 then the graph would not show any full year of 0%-military-aid, but the spirit of the question would still be met, and we would resolve YES).

Edit3: This question is concerned with official aid (e.g. in the US federal budget, acts of congress, official State Department budget items, etc.). Aid kept secret from the general public will not count. Aid that is officially designated for some other purpose but ends up used militarily will not count. Etc.