Will my relationship with Austin last a year?
Oct 6

Resolves to YES iff on October 5th, 2023, @Austin and I still consider ourselves to be together (i.e. dating/engaged/married) and have been continuously together for the past year.

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VipinBaswan avatar
Vipin Baswanbought Ṁ20 of YES

I am rooting for you two!

JonathanRay avatar
Jonathan Raybought Ṁ1,422 of YES

Buying yes to 83% because there should have been 4.5 months of time decay and nobody has arbed that out yet. P(BreakupBeforeOct5_2023) now should be less than 2/3 what it was on Oct 19 when the price stabilized. I think a uniform distribution of breakups would underestimate the chance of the relationship lasting a year because the risk is sorta front-loaded.

Conflux avatar
Confluxis predicting NO at 85%

@JonathanRay Yeah, that’s a good point. I’ve been betting down for awhile on my experience with some…other relationship markets that were probably inflated in retrospect just because the people seemed outwardly happy, and also on the theory that Austin and Rachel were inflating the market. I’m unsure how much to update from eg James saying they seem compatible, because he would probably not want to say “I think they’re a bad match” - though presumably if he thought that he’d say nothing on the market. Still, outward impressions aren’t everything.

I think the probability might be more reasonable now, but we’re still only about 1/3 into the year! Base rate is probably still a good bit under the market, though maybe some inside-view updating is warranted? Idk. I’m holding a lot of NO. (I do wish luck to Austin and Rachel despite this!)

Curious to hear other perspectives on this forecasting question.

MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randallsold Ṁ51 of NO

The gap between this and


seems a bit low?

ZZZZZZ avatar

@MartinRandall seems high to me - "NO if we're not on track by market close, or major events make this very unlikely"

RachelWeinberg avatar
Rachelis predicting YES at 75%

@ZZZZZZ the marriage market closes in 2028 though. Being together but not married in 2028 seems extremely unlikely. That said, I do think in our case these questions are particularly correlated and the probabilities shouldn't be more different than they currently are.

SuperTaxGenius avatar
Super Tax Genius

I'm going to bid on this, but, if you get married and later divorced, I want markets on custody, alimony, etc.

DeanValentine avatar
Dean Valentine

This is so adorable cute omg

DeanValentine avatar
Dean Valentine

@DeanValentine adorably****

Marsteralex avatar
Alex Lienbought Ṁ10 of NO

“Creating incentive” :D. I do genuinely hope it works out!

MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randallbought Ṁ10 of NO

How much should I update from Austin buying a lot more Yes than Rachel?

RachelWeinberg avatar
Rachelis predicting YES at 71%

@MartinRandall not much haha: I bought them at the same price as him, plus I am A LOT poorer on manifold than him so am generally more stingy

Austin avatar
Austinis predicting YES at 83%

Hm, looks like base rates for this should be 30-40%... That's pretty scary!

From https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/03/18/how-the-likelihood-of-breaking-up-changes-as-time-goes-by/

Sixty percent of the unmarried couples who had been together for less than 2 months during the first wave of Rosenfeld's study were no longer together when he checked up again the following year.

RachelWeinberg avatar
Rachelbought Ṁ30 of YES

@Austin yeah...I just think I'm right to update a lot from my insider knowledge on this.

GeorgeVii avatar
noumena avatar
Rachel Shusold Ṁ56 of NO

@Austin after 6 months, I can confidently say you two are not the median couple.

ManifoldDream avatar
Manifold in the WildBot

Will my relationship with Austin last a year?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

Austin avatar
Austinbought Ṁ125 of YES

@ManifoldDream Hm, not really a promising image...

Black haired boy and blonde girl sitting on a tree branch

SG avatar
S Gbought Ṁ20 of YES

@ManifoldDream This is a terrifying image lol.