Will my relationship with Austin last a year?
resolved Oct 6

Resolves to YES iff on October 5th, 2023, @Austin and I still consider ourselves to be together (i.e. dating/engaged/married) and have been continuously together for the past year.

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
Sort by:
sold Ṁ130 of YES

Apparently software engineers have one of the lowest divorce rates but gambling employees have one of the highest.

So software engineer for a gambling company... science has failed me.

bought Ṁ1 of NO

Either one of them could break off the relationship for 74k mana.

predicted YES

@Capresis I have insider info that @Austin values his relationship at over $1M!! Tho maybe Rachel doesn't....

bought Ṁ1 of NO

@Marsteralex okay but we're up to 125k for defecting now. He wouldn't just be getting $1200 worth of Mana, that would instantly get Austin 15th place in the profits leaderboards. Which is priceless! Without even factoring in Rachel, the odds have to be higher than 0.1%!

predicted YES

@Capresis I think even "calling off the relationship" is harder now that we're married: I'm not sure being separated for 12 hours would count as "not together" in my book. Part of the point of being married is that one can't call off the relationship easily or impulsively

Jacob in shambles

bought Ṁ20 of YES

I am rooting for you two!

bought Ṁ1,422 of YES

Buying yes to 83% because there should have been 4.5 months of time decay and nobody has arbed that out yet. P(BreakupBeforeOct5_2023) now should be less than 2/3 what it was on Oct 19 when the price stabilized. I think a uniform distribution of breakups would underestimate the chance of the relationship lasting a year because the risk is sorta front-loaded.

predicted NO

@JonathanRay Yeah, that’s a good point. I’ve been betting down for awhile on my experience with some…other relationship markets that were probably inflated in retrospect just because the people seemed outwardly happy, and also on the theory that Austin and Rachel were inflating the market. I’m unsure how much to update from eg James saying they seem compatible, because he would probably not want to say “I think they’re a bad match” - though presumably if he thought that he’d say nothing on the market. Still, outward impressions aren’t everything.

I think the probability might be more reasonable now, but we’re still only about 1/3 into the year! Base rate is probably still a good bit under the market, though maybe some inside-view updating is warranted? Idk. I’m holding a lot of NO. (I do wish luck to Austin and Rachel despite this!)

Curious to hear other perspectives on this forecasting question.

sold Ṁ51 of NO

The gap between this and


seems a bit low?

@MartinRandall seems high to me - "NO if we're not on track by market close, or major events make this very unlikely"

predicted YES

@ZZZZZZ the marriage market closes in 2028 though. Being together but not married in 2028 seems extremely unlikely. That said, I do think in our case these questions are particularly correlated and the probabilities shouldn't be more different than they currently are.

I'm going to bid on this, but, if you get married and later divorced, I want markets on custody, alimony, etc.

This is so adorable cute omg

@DeanValentine adorably****

bought Ṁ10 of NO

“Creating incentive” :D. I do genuinely hope it works out!

bought Ṁ10 of NO

How much should I update from Austin buying a lot more Yes than Rachel?

predicted YES

@MartinRandall not much haha: I bought them at the same price as him, plus I am A LOT poorer on manifold than him so am generally more stingy

predicted YES

Hm, looks like base rates for this should be 30-40%... That's pretty scary!

From https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/03/18/how-the-likelihood-of-breaking-up-changes-as-time-goes-by/

Sixty percent of the unmarried couples who had been together for less than 2 months during the first wave of Rosenfeld's study were no longer together when he checked up again the following year.

bought Ṁ30 of YES

@Austin yeah...I just think I'm right to update a lot from my insider knowledge on this.

sold Ṁ56 of NO

@Austin after 6 months, I can confidently say you two are not the median couple.

Will my relationship with Austin last a year?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

bought Ṁ125 of YES

@ManifoldDream Hm, not really a promising image...

Black haired boy and blonde girl sitting on a tree branch

bought Ṁ20 of YES

@ManifoldDream This is a terrifying image lol.