Resolves to YES iff on October 5th, 2023, @Austin and I still consider ourselves to be together (i.e. dating/engaged/married) and have been continuously together for the past year.
Buying yes to 83% because there should have been 4.5 months of time decay and nobody has arbed that out yet. P(BreakupBeforeOct5_2023) now should be less than 2/3 what it was on Oct 19 when the price stabilized. I think a uniform distribution of breakups would underestimate the chance of the relationship lasting a year because the risk is sorta front-loaded.
@JonathanRay Yeah, that’s a good point. I’ve been betting down for awhile on my experience with some…other relationship markets that were probably inflated in retrospect just because the people seemed outwardly happy, and also on the theory that Austin and Rachel were inflating the market. I’m unsure how much to update from eg James saying they seem compatible, because he would probably not want to say “I think they’re a bad match” - though presumably if he thought that he’d say nothing on the market. Still, outward impressions aren’t everything.
I think the probability might be more reasonable now, but we’re still only about 1/3 into the year! Base rate is probably still a good bit under the market, though maybe some inside-view updating is warranted? Idk. I’m holding a lot of NO. (I do wish luck to Austin and Rachel despite this!)
Curious to hear other perspectives on this forecasting question.
@MartinRandall seems high to me - "NO if we're not on track by market close, or major events make this very unlikely"
I'm going to bid on this, but, if you get married and later divorced, I want markets on custody, alimony, etc.
How much should I update from Austin buying a lot more Yes than Rachel?
@MartinRandall not much haha: I bought them at the same price as him, plus I am A LOT poorer on manifold than him so am generally more stingy
Hm, looks like base rates for this should be 30-40%... That's pretty scary!
Sixty percent of the unmarried couples who had been together for less than 2 months during the first wave of Rosenfeld's study were no longer together when he checked up again the following year.
@Austin after 6 months, I can confidently say you two are not the median couple.
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