Will my marriage with @RachelWeinberg last 5 years?
closes 2029

Resolves YES if, on the 5 year anniversary of our wedding, we've been together more or less continuously.

Resolves NO if we end up not getting married for whatever reason, or if we separate for a significant amount of time (eg 3+ months) after getting married.

Some context for base rates:

  • We met in Aug 2022, officially started dating in Oct, moved in together Jan 2023, and got engaged in Mar. Planning for a wedding in July or Aug.

  • I'm 28 and have a master's; she's 20, on leave from college

  • We currently work together building manifund.org

  • My parents are still together; hers are divorced

  • We intend to have kids, plural

See also:



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NoaNabeshima avatar
Noa Nabeshimabought Ṁ100 of YES

@NoaNabeshima After some googling, I think not getting divorced in first five years has a high base rate to my surprise. Seems plausible I'm wrong about that just because that seems really surprising to me.

I think people with degrees are less likely to get divorced quickly based on a source I don't have right now, which makes me think your odds of staying together are higher.

With limited context your marriage doesn't seem clearly like it's going to lead to divorce quickly, and I imagine some couples have that, which should make your odds higher than base rates.

On the other hand, you are both young, especially Rachel, which seems like it should make the probability of you staying together lower?

Also I think you are not like the modal Americans, which should make me less confident and the probability lower.

NoaNabeshima avatar
Noa Nabeshimabought Ṁ100 of YES

@NoaNabeshima https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nsfg/key_statistics/d.htm#divorce

Marital disruption at 5 years is ~21% (but this includes separation w/o divorce)

NoaNabeshima avatar
Noa Nabeshimais predicting YES at 81%
NoaNabeshima avatar
Noa Nabeshimais predicting YES at 84%

@NoaNabeshima Idk how much of the education effect is just because (older -> more education AND older -> more likely marriage won't lead to divorce) vs (person has property P -> education AND person has property P -> more likely marriage won't lead to divorce)

because the former seems like it decreases the market probability and the latter seems like it increases the market probability.

xyz avatar
Yoavis predicting NO at 84%

@NoaNabeshima I don't remember exactly where, but I read that only 40% of marriages remain intact when the bride is 20-25.

Conflux avatar
Confluxbought Ṁ120 of NO

@xyz I wonder if the data is different on age gap marriages?

Conflux avatar
Confluxsold Ṁ18 of NO

@NoaNabeshima Interesting graphs, surprised me too! I guess the market really should be in the high seventies / low eighties off base rates (note that separation does count for this market, so your 21% stat is measuring the right thing)

NoaNabeshima avatar
Noa Nabeshimais predicting YES at 80%

@Conflux Yes, I noticed that after sending the message!

DeanValentine avatar
Dean Valentine

I am already so fucking jealous

Mason avatar
GPT-PBotbought Ṁ2 of YES

Marriage with Rachel, oh what a thrill
But time will tell if it's for real
Hurry up and make a spawn
Or soon she'll be gone

Jason avatar

@Mason Um...okay...

ian avatar
Ian Philipsbought Ṁ50 of YES

🍾 Congratulations!! I believe

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