Added precise-ish criteria for who counts as "cisgender". Really should have thought to do it in beginning, sorry. (Also, if you're wondering, @MarcusOgren is definitely insider-trading.)

Filled Aella's survey that automatically computes sexual market value, got 54th percentile:

For those who want even more info about me (including pics), I just made a date-me doc.

@VanessaKosoy Nice, that's a pretty good doc, ngl if I was in the same age group and country I'd consider asking you out haha

Some general questions:

• What is your age, gender, and sexual/romantic orientation?

• What part of the world do you live in?

• What is the size, gender balance, and relationship success rate of your friendship group?

• Are you actively attempting to find someone, or planning to in the near future?

• What dating methods do you intend to use?

• What are your political views e.g. in terms of economics, government, and progressivism (particularly gender equality)?

• What are your free-time hobbies, and what topics do you enjoy chatting about, both for small talk and deep discussions?

• Do you have any neurodivergence?

• Do you find it difficult to enjoy the company of, compassionately care about, and trust people you meet?

• Do you have a date-me-doc? e.g. https://dateme.directory/

These questions vastly affect the odds in my opinion

Good luck :)

@TheAllMemeingEye Some of those questions are answered in the linked manifold.love profile

• I'm a 41yo bisexual transwoman.

• I live in Israel.

• My friend group is very small.

• I occasionally use dating apps, but often I get tired of them and take a lot of time off.

• Political views: Liberal with a capital L, I guess? Left-leaning overall, but with a strong dislike of both the radical left and the radical right. My views on gender equality are pretty vanilla. I would certainly enjoy it if a guy opens doors / pays bills for me, but I don't require it. And I'm not planning to get another primary, so there's no issue of household chore division.

• Hobbies: Reading, board games, TTRPG, art galleries. Conversation topics: math, science, philosophy, history, society, futurism...

• Neurodivergence: Might be autistic but not sure.

• I find it rather easy to enjoy/care/trust people when they can at least remotely keep up with me intellectually and seem like good people overall.

• No dateme doc.
  

@VanessaKosoy

Thanks for the detailed answer :)

Unfortunately manifold love demands that I make a profile before I can even view anyone else's 😞

Anyway, some broad observations based on your answers:

• Although you are at an age where people of the same age are more likely to have already been taken, your suitable age dating range is wider as well (see https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php/314:_Dating_Pools)

• Being trans could unfortunately lead to significant discrimination, especially in a country with strong conservative attitudes such as Israel, but this might be reduced in specific progressive neighborhoods e.g. in Tel Aviv

• In an ideal society being bi would significantly boost chances by increasing number of potential matches, but I have heard that there is a culture of stronger biphobic stigma in lesbian women than in straight men, so the advantage might be mostly cancelled out

• Having too small of a friendship group could unfortunately limit the amount of relationship advice, wingmanning potential, and matchmaking potential you can get from them, as well as possibly indicating lower extraversion, but if that small group still has good gender balance (preventing echo-chambering), and relationship success rate (indicating you getting reasonable advice from them), it might be ok

• Only using dating apps occasionally might be a huge bottleneck, but it's still way better than never using them at all

• It sounds like you likely don't have any major unhinged red flag beliefs/hobbies/interests, which is a plus

• Your neurodivergence might inadvertently help you due to there being way more autistic men than women

• Sounds like you're in a reasonably good position regarding enjoying/caring/trusting people

Overall, while it seems there are a few significant limiting factors, there weren't any huge red flags either, and 5 years is quite a long time, so I think the odds are still fairly high, maybe 60-80% at a rough guess, and skewed towards men slightly

Hope this helps :)