Conditional on at least dating 6 months before getting married, will Austin and Rachel still be married after 5 years? | Manifold

Conditional on at least dating 6 months before getting married, will Austin and Rachel still be married after 5 years?

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Scoping out the success chances of a marriage based on duration of courtship. Part of a series. See also 1 year and 2 year questions.

"After 5 years" from the date of marriage. I.e., will they still be together on their 5th wedding anniversary.

Resolves "N/A" if Austin and Rachel do not get married or get married before having dated 6 months.

If they date at least 6 months and then get married, only the highest applicable duration will stay active. For example, if they date 13 months and get married the "at least 1 year" question will remain active, and the 6 month and 2 year questions will both resolve N/A.

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I think this is almost certain (Oct-Apr, we're like a few weeks away), so straight arb with

@Conflux Should be slightly higher than this arb due to the conditional taking out the chance of no marriage, right?

predicts NO

@NickAllen Yeah, I guess. Also I posted this before I knew you’d N/A if it was 1 yr +

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