Looks like the Polostan rumors have been finally confirmed. I don't think it will focus on AI:

From the #1 New York Times bestselling author of Termination Shock and Cryptonomicon, the first installment in a monumental new series—an expansive historical epic of intrigue and international espionage, presaging the dawn of the Atomic Age.

The first installment in Neal Stephenson’s Bomb Light cycle, Polostan follows the early life of the enigmatic Dawn Rae Bjornberg. Born in the American West to a clan of cowboy anarchists, Dawn is raised in Leningrad after the Russian Revolution by her Russian father, a party line Leninist who re-christens her Aurora. She spends her early years in Russia but then grows up as a teenager in Montana, before being drawn into gunrunning and revolution in the streets of Washington, D.C., during the depths of the Great Depression. When a surprising revelation about her past puts her in the crosshairs of U.S. authorities, Dawn returns to Russia, where she is groomed as a spy by the organization that later becomes the KGB.

Set against the turbulent decades of the early twentieth century, Polostan is an inventive, richly detailed, and deeply entertaining historical epic, and the start of a captivating new series from Neal Stephenson.

https://nealstephenson.com/news/2024/04/25/announcing-polostan,-on-sale-october-15,-2024/

alcibiad: Hi I’ve been waiting for your next speculative futuristic scifi (a la Diamond Age, Anathem), do you have one coming in the near future? Any hints as to the setting? 🙏
NealStephenson: Next one will be historical, sorry!

https://old.reddit.com/r/books/comments/11h6hg5/i_am_neal_stephenson_scifi_author_geek_and_now/jas8jvd/

Oh my, I did not know Stephenson had put out two novels since 2019. I got my work set before me.

I'll put forward the lower ask, will he put out a novel at all before the year's up?