Will a vaccine for HIV be approved by the FDA and be available for public use by 2027? | Manifold

Will a vaccine for HIV be approved by the FDA and be available for public use by 2027?

4

90Ṁ81

2027

28%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

The US National Institutes of Health announced a clinical trial of an HIV vaccine in 2023, and says that "initial results are expected in late 2024" (https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/clinical-trial-hiv-vaccine-begins-united-states-south-africa).

Resolves YES if this or another AIDS vaccine is FDA-approved and legally accessible in the US (even if there are shortages or other logistical limitations) at any point before 2027.

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