Will a vaccine for HIV be approved by the FDA and be available for public use by 2027?
4
31
แน€90
2027
28%
chance

The US National Institutes of Health announced a clinical trial of an HIV vaccine in 2023, and says that "initial results are expected in late 2024" (https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/clinical-trial-hiv-vaccine-begins-united-states-south-africa).

Resolves YES if this or another AIDS vaccine is FDA-approved and legally accessible in the US (even if there are shortages or other logistical limitations) at any point before 2027.

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bought แน€50 of NO

I am fairly confident that [full clinical trials will take longer than that] OR [the US right-wing will burn political capital to sabotage the project or complain about it hard enough to ensure it doesn't reach market (cf embryonic stem cell research)]

@Lorxus Why would the right wing sabotage it?

predicts NO

@Snarflak Is that an actual question? If it is, what's your starting epistemic state about the role of Christian fundamentalism in the modern US right-wing coalition?

@Lorxus Yes, it's an actual question. I don't know what your second sentence means, but I spent the first half of my existence as a right-wing Christian fundamentalist, so I'm curious why you think they would sabotage a vaccine against HIV.

predicts NO

@Snarflak Because most if not all Christian fundamentalists, very much including the ones with political power, believe that homosexuality - even by those not sharing their religion - is an abomination before their god, and many also believe that HIV/AIDS is their god's punishment for that homosexuality; this belief in particular has admittedly waned over the past ~40 years but is still an important part of the picture.

Leaving aside whether or not those same fundamentalists believe that fully developed vaccines are safe and effective, or whether they believe that such vaccines are permissible in full generality, rather than that they might be a defiance of god's will and the natural order, in the past, they have spoken out against other treatments for HIV and AIDS, both preventative and palliative. That same strain of Christian fundamentalism also demonstrably has the reach within the US government to push key aspects of its agenda; as I alluded to earlier, the harsh restrictions on funding for embryonic stem cell research about 20 years ago has been traced to Dominionist influence, among their recent shows of force; another was an abortive attempt to limit access to the HPV vaccine on grounds of promotion of promiscuity; another yet has been the recent wave of anti-trans sentiment and legislation - I bring up this this last to demonstrate anti-queer animus on their part, given a similar wave of anti-gay sentiment and legislation 20-40 years ago.

Between the ability to pull strings in the US government, a willingness to starve out research they don't approve of, a strong association between HIV/AIDS and the queer community, their mortal disapproval of that same queer community - and willingness to act substantively on that disapproval, and a simmering mistrust of vaccines - especially mRNA vaccines, I subjectively put ~93% credence (and will bet at 7:1 odds) on Dominionist politicos working against any potential mRNA-based HIV vaccine that ongoing research might produce, likely taking the form of obstructionism, budget cuts, slow-walking through regulatory approval, and a tail-risk of object-level sabotage and/or violent terrorism as has been observed more notably with regards to abortion access and reproductive rights.

Please understand: I don't care what you personally think, and I will take it as a deliberate personal affront if you attempt to defend your ex-coreligionists' behavior to me. I am also not going to go digging through masses of what I would consider hate speech to find sources for you unless you pay me a lot (high thousands plus) of mana. That said, I hope that you have found this informative and now understand why I think what I think.

@Lorxus

and many also believe that HIV/AIDS is their god's punishment for that homosexuality;

No they don't. Maybe some did pre-1991.

as I alluded to earlier, the harsh restrictions on funding for embryonic stem cell research about 20 years ago has been traced to Dominionist influence

That's because they believe that human embryos are people and that using them is murder.

I subjectively put ~93% credence (and will bet at 7:1 odds) on Dominionist politicos working against any potential mRNA-based HIV vaccine that ongoing research might produce

OK, I guess I will take your money then? Want to start a bet about this?

predicts NO

@Snarflak

I will take it as a deliberate personal affront if you attempt to defend your ex-coreligionists' behavior to me.

Fuck you.

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