Will a vaccine for HIV be a available in the US or Europe by 2030?
47
1kṀ86372030
47%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
One promising candidate: https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(24)00459-8
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
bought Ṁ20 NO
I think people are drawing too much on their experience watching the COVID vaccines get rolled out. AIDS hasn't been an epidemic for decades, and so there isn't a much of a reason to assume an accelerated testing and rollout process
People are also trading
Related questions
Will a vaccine for Lyme disease be available to the US public by the end of 2025?
6% chance
Will an mRNA HIV vaccine pass Phase 2 trials by 2025
10% chance
Will a vaccine for HIV be approved by the FDA by 2030?
75% chance
By the start of 2026, will at least 1000 people have been permanently cured of HIV?
6% chance
Will there be more than one million new HIV infections globally in 2025?
74% chance
Will development of a universal flu vaccine have made significant progress by 2026?
19% chance
By the start of 2026, will at least 100 people have been permanently cured of HIV?
16% chance
Will a malaria vaccine be deployed to >1M humans in 2023-2024?
94% chance
Will HIV/AIDS be considered a "curable" disease by the end of 2030?
50% chance
Will a vaccine for HIV be approved by the FDA and be available for public use by 2027?
28% chance