Opioid vaccines are nearing human trials. Will we have one by the end of 2026? Resolves Yes if a vaccine is available for human use at the end of 2026. Resolves No otherwise, even if the vaccine is in late stage clinical trials.
https://neurosciencenews.com/opioid-vaccine-pharmacology-23854/
1,000
3.00Base rate vaccine development timeline from preclinical is around 10 years.
Base rate success being approved in humans is <10% from preclinical.
This is a new type of vaccine in an area (vaccine against small psychoactive molecule) where several previous attempts have failed.
Having an immune response against commonly used medical drugs (like fentanyl, which they aim to try after heroin (diamorphine)) is inconvenient and this will be a complicated discussion before it makes it into clinical practice.