
Will we observe clear evidence of axions by January 1st 2030
15
1kṀ14932029
18%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The market will resolve itself if there is a clear consensus on their existence by January 1st 2030.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will we find strong evidence for extraterrestrial life by 2030?
16% chance
Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2031?
12% chance
Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2030?
9% chance
Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2033?
15% chance
Will strong evidence of aliens be discovered before 2030?
11% chance
Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2032?
14% chance
Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2040?
31% chance
Will we discover evidence of a cosmic string before 2050?
10% chance
Leading dark matter explanation by January 2045
Will a new fundamental physical force be discovered by January 1, 2040?
13% chance