MANIFOLD
Credible evidence Donald Trump has dementia emerges by 2028
24
Ṁ173Ṁ1k
2028
47%
chance

This will resolve based on mainstream media reports. Any kind of dementia counts. Outside speculation does not count, unless the evidence is so strong that mainstream media consensus emerges.

https://www.newsweek.com/stop-talking-about-bidens-mental-acuity-start-talking-about-trumps-signs-dementia-opinion-1853741

I do not bet on my markets.

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Very difficult bet. He sounds demented. But sometimes he loooks sharp (answering reporters) and fit (walking up airplane stairs).

He may be playing the moron because his base likes dumb and boorish.

https://manifold.markets/yeeta/will-donald-trump-complete-his-seco?r=dWFpcjAx

https://manifold.markets/zax/will-trump-having-serious-health-tr?r=dWFpcjAx

Is there a version of this for Biden?

@squirrelfish Yes, parallel markets for Joe Biden just created.

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Credible evidence Donald Trump has dementia emerges by 2030
76% chance
Credible evidence Joe Biden has dementia emerges by 2028
46% chance
Credible evidence Joe Biden has dementia emerges by 2030
56% chance
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19% chance
Will it be confirmed by the Trump Administration before June 30, 2026 that Donald Trump has been treated for Alzheimer’?
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Will we know Trump had at least one stroke in 2025 by the end of 2027?
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