Will positive MOP market predictions all be accurate?
9
165
260
resolved Apr 19
Resolved
YES

Resolves YES if every "will I make MOP" market with over 80% YES percentage ends up resolving YES. There's five right now (including mine):

https://manifold.markets/Andrewaae1/will-i-make-mop-2024-2d5bd4e4b870

https://manifold.markets/RitwinNarra/will-i-make-mop-2024-1cbc9c1a9bff

https://manifold.markets/EvinLiang/will-i-make-mop-2024-a5e4f39ef304

https://manifold.markets/Davida035/will-i-make-mop-2024-004fe497fd10

https://manifold.markets/PseudonymousBosche24f/will-i-make-mop-2024

To decide this market, I will look at all the YES/NO-style markets that are equivalent to "will [someone] make MOP" by searching for "MOP." If any one that had over 80% YES percentage (truthfully) resolves NO, this market resolves NO. To avoid the complication of markets being bet down on the day of emails being released, percentages considered will be based on two days before scores are released. Resolves N/A if no such markets exist.

I may bet on this market, but not using information that only I would know about my personal results.

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