
I posted an article here:
https://www.fortressofdoors.com/ai-markets-for-lemons-and-the-great-logging-off
I make 7 concrete predictions related to a phenomenon I call "The Great Logging Off" that might occur in response to the internet getting saturated with accounts making it hard to distinguish real from fake people.
A decline in big "open sea" social networks like twitter and a move to fragmented silos
An increased premium put on "verified human" accounts + increased platform surveillance
An increased premium put on private socialization
Resurgence and even fetishization of explicitly "offline" culture
A segment of online people getting sucked into the online world even harder as AI-powered super addictions get rolled out
Human civilization adapts as more "offline" cultures outcompete "terminally online" cultures
Real estate prices continue to rise
We'll check in 5 years from now, and I'll evaluate, in my sole opinion, how many of these predictions are holding up.
EDIT:
You can find sub-markets for all these here now:
https://manifold.markets/group/the-great-logging-off
Dec 27, 2:14pm: How many of my predictions in "Markets for Lemons and the Great Logging Off" will come to pass by 2027? → How many of my predictions in "Markets for Lemons and the Great Logging Off" will come to pass by the end of 2027?