since LK-99 is basically impossible and Biden doesn't quite matter, this is roughly NOT (rationalussy) at this point

Hm, for once i am not sure which side to bet on in a rationalussy market

@ButtocksCocktoasten I guess I will bet no because the market says LK99 is probavly not real, and so it will not have the same truth value as the OG rationalussy market!

How does this resolve if it goes to a penalty shootout?

@StevenK Goes to Whales vs Minnows in extra time first before even thinking about it the penalty shootouts

Yud has years of prediction market usage and AI ex-risk advocacy ahead of him. He cannot recklessly tweet rationalussy without jeopardizing his considerable gravitas. Thus, this market is simply a superconductor market.

@aashiq https://manifold.markets/JosephNoonan/will-eliezer-yudkowsky-tweet-the-wo#jDC0hae0Vs2bWpXCXUM2

Sorry to crash your world. Rationalussy always prevails

LMAO

My eyes are bleeding.

Yo

JOSEPH

Ugh

Makes perfect sense, as long as we move the election up a year :b

if the superconductor is not real and Yudkowsky does not write such a tweet

Is this meant to say "or"? I'm very confused.

@osmarks Oh, never mind.

assuming uncorrelated, this should be ~50 since EY rationalussy is at ~50

@Conflux EY's aware of this market, we can't assume independence anymore.

I feel like I'm having a stroke.