Will Eliezer Yudkowsky run for President of the United States by 2060?

imo if it's gonna happen, it's gonna happen now

Will a prominent AI X-Risk entity announce a "Hail Mary" third-party presidential run before TX's ballot deadline?

18% chance. Given many timelines place AGI somewhere before 2028 (the Metaculus mode is at 2026), the 2024 cycle might be the last chance to elect a president who can do something to stop or postpone it. It also looks like a surprisingly fertile election for a third-party run: [link preview]Will someone actually try? Resolution Criteria: This market resolves positively if a recognized AI X-Risk organization known for its commitment to mitigating the existential threats of artificial intelligence endorses a third-party presidential run, or a recognized AI X-Risk activist announces their intent to run for office. I'm thinking "must have a Wikipedia page that links to or is linked from the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Existential_risk_from_artificial_general_intelligence page" but I'm open to other suggestions. The declaration must be official, public, and specifically aim at influencing AI policy The declaration must occur before the Texas ballot application deadline on May 13, 2024. (Source: Ballotpedia)

predictedNO

How does this resolve if he takes a "pivotal act" to become God-Emperor of Earth?

predictedYES

@MartinRandall He would have to make sure to add "President of the United States" to his long title.

He is not allowed to run because he was born in Dath Ilan.

As a likely single-issue candidate, he would have no realistic chance of winning. Even according to him, there wouldn't be enough time to have an election if we were staring down the barrel of the weapons of a hostile AGI, or even just watching an AGI wake up, and if you don't believe his fast-takeoff timelines you're unlikely to want to vote for him to be President of the United States.

Oh wait, if AGI alignment was solved by 2060, he could run on an "I told you so" ticket, but no-one would give him enough credit to get elected for that alone, and some would even doubt that alignment mattered that much - see the disparagement of the Y2K problem after programmers ran around testing and fixing everything.

@RobinGreen fwiw not dying is a decent single-issue

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