Will an AI model achieve superhuman ELO on Codeforces by the 31 December 2025? | Manifold

Will an AI model achieve superhuman ELO on Codeforces by the 31 December 2025?

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100Ṁ2857

Dec 31

55%

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This market predicts whether any AI model will surpass the current best human competitor's ELO rating on Codeforces by the end of 2025. As of 31 December 2024, the current highest human ELO is 3985 and the current highest AI ELO is 2727 which was achieved by OpenAI's o3 model.

Resolution Criteria: Market resolves YES if any AI lab announces and verifies that their model has achieved a Codeforces ELO rating greater than 3985 by December 31, 2025. Otherwise, resolves NO.

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I have a simple question: is CodeForces able to detect when a human is using AI assistance? If not, then this will never happen, because if some AI becomes superhuman, then some humans will definitely use it to boost their own scores.

bought Ṁ100 YES

@pietrokc codeforces is definitely able to detect cheaters

https://x.com/tsarnick/status/1888111042301211084

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