If Trump does not win the 2024 US presidential election, resolves N/A.
If Trump does win, resolves Yes if, in any incident before the end of 2026, US active-duty military are publicly on duty in Washington DC, and tasked with maintaining law and order (or controlling protests/riots, etc) as stated by either the administration, a military spokesperson, or members of the units themselves.
Otherwise resolves No at the end of 2026.
"Active duty" is intended to exclude national guardsmen and army reserves. The deployment must be reported in at least 2 major media outlets: CNN, Fox, BBC, NYT, WaPo, WSJ, The Guardian, the AP, or similar. (The reporting must describe this as a step beyond the usual responsibilities of active-duty troops -- I'm not talking about MPs patrolling their normal routes at the Navy Yard.)
I will not trade in this market.
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3.00@Adam In my understanding, this is not the normal role of active-duty military in the US. So it wouldn't be a question of "why stop" but rather "why start".
Apparently it requires invoking the Insurrection Act or similar, and the last time Trump tried he faced pushback from the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
@Adam Certainly the active-duty status of the Tomb Guards is non-controversial, though it's debatable whether they're tasked with maintaining law and order (and they're in Virginia)
@Adam Ah I see. I'll clarify the wording to highlight that I mean active-duty troops controlling protests/riots, in a way that means taking on a new/unusual responsibility.
If the protestors are at the Navy Yard, MPs confronting them would not satisfy the resolution criteria. If the protestors are on the national mall, (active-duty) MPs confronting them would satisfy the criteria.