This market is open to everyone, but it primarily targets those who frequently bet on NO or (like myself) on YES.

You can bet as you want; this is optional, but the fun of this market is to choose a side, either Something Happens or Nothing Ever Happens, and always make YES or NO bets without selling your shares, even if the situation turns against you. Hold onto your side until the end.

Multiple markets concerning significant, history-altering human events have been selected. I chose those with the most well-established criteria I could find.

If at least one of these markets resolves to YES (or in numerical markets, to an interval that includes 2024 or 2025), this market will resolve to YES. In all other cases, it will resolve to NO.

IMPORTANT: This market does not resolve based on the actual events occurring in the world, but rather on the resolution of these specific markets. Theoretically, a market that is resolved incorrectly could trigger a YES in this market even if the event has not actually occurred. To prevent this, if any market from the selected list resolves to YES, trading in this market will be closed for 5 days. This period allows moderators enough time to correct any mistakenly resolved markets. After that, if the YES resolution stands, I will resolve this market to YES; otherwise, I will reopen trading without resolving.

If none of these markets resolves to YES by the end of 2025 (or in numerical ones to an interval that includes 2024 or 2025), this market will be resolved as NO.

List of markets:

• AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]

• Will the LK-99 room temperature, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025?

• Will there be a 'World War Three' before 2050?

• Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048-bit RSA encryption by 2030?

• Will we be able to solve all NP problems in polynomial time by 2200? (any practical computation method, e.g., BPP, BQP)

• Will strong evidence of aliens be discovered before 2030?

• In what year will the next pandemic occur that is as bad or worse than COVID?

• Will there be a peer-reviewed, widely accepted scientific explanation of how consciousness emerges by 31/Dec/2033?

Resolution as YES:

• Any of the listed markets resolves to YES (or in numerical ones to an interval that includes 2024 or 2025) before the end of 2025.

• Trading will be closed for 5 days when any of the listed markets is resolved as YES. Afterwards, if the YES resolution of that market remains unchanged, this market will be resolved as YES; otherwise, trading will reopen.

• Percentage resolutions do not count as YES, even if they are 99%.

Resolution as NO:

• If the year 2025 ends and the criteria for YES are not met.

• If all the listed markets resolve to something other than YES (N/A, percentage, etc.).

OP Trading: Given the objective nature of this market’s resolution (and because the listed markets do not depend on me), I reserve the right to place bets. However, I will only do so after at least 5 trades or trade orders from different traders have been made, to avoid any unfair advantage. Moreover, in the spirit of this market, I restrict myself to placing only YES bets.