I will not bet in this market.

For the purposes of this market, Thomas Nagel's definition of consciousness will be used as a guide: "[Consciousness is] the feeling of what it is like to be something".

Currently, there are no scientific theories that provide a satisfactory description for how consciousness emerges. This market is about a "zero to one" transition in this regard: by the end of 2033, will there be a peer-reviewed explanation that describes how consciousness emerges in the universe?

"How consciousness emerges" == "How do we go from physical reality to subjective experience/feeling"

Put another way: if you ask any subject matter expert today how consciousness emerges, the best answer they can give you is "we don't know yet". This market is about whether a credible, better answer will exist by the end of 2033.

This market resolves YES if the following conditions are met:

* A peer-reviewed scientific explanation is published on or before December 31, 2033 that has explanatory power for the question of how consciousness emerges (in any form, in any part of the universe). This could happen, for example, by providing a mechanistic/causal description for the origin of consciousness.

* The published explanation garners widespread acceptance among subject matter experts. This condition may require subjective judgement. The assessment of this condition will be influenced by factors potentially including, but not limited to: 1) number of citations to the publication; 2) the public endorsement of the publication by subject matter experts; 3) the reproducibility of the publication.

Only the publication needs to happen on or before 31 December 2033. If needed, the market's close date may be extended to allow for the fair assessment of a relevant publication's "wide acceptance".