In what year will the next pandemic occur that is as bad or worse than COVID? | Manifold

In what year will the next pandemic occur that is as bad or worse than COVID?

Basic

31

Ṁ1274

2101

2048

expected

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Pandemic severity tradeoffs include mortality, transmissibility, scale, and any other relevant considerations.

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In the year, or by the year?

@vluzko Could you elaborate on the difference?

@CarsonGale In the year: if I bet 2030, I only win if it happens in 2030 precisely. By the year: if I bet 2030, I win if it happens any time between now and the end of 2030.

predicts LOWER

@vluzko Please correct me if I'm wrong, but I think this distinction misunderstands how profits are calculated in this market structure. If the precise year ends up being 2030 and you bet "Lower" from 2040, you will earn profit.

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