Relevant poll: https://manifold.markets/Siebe/what-is-a-better-prior

I will resolve this based on markets in the topic https://manifold.markets/topic/trumps-second-term that are about whether Trump will enact a certain policy and have resolved by Jan. 10 2026 and closed on or before Jan. 1 2026. If there are more such markets that resolved to "Trump took an action" than "Trump did not take an action", this resolves YES. Otherwise, this resolves NO. This involves judgement, so I will not trade in this market.

Example markets that are about whether Trump will enact a certain policy:

Trump changes new tariffs in the next week?

Trump announces 10+ new tariffs on April 2, 2025?

Will Trump take any action against Russia after they speak on Tuesday 4/1?

Example markets that are NOT about whether Trump will enact a certain policy:

Trump serves any part of a third term?

Congress acts against Trump's tariffs by June?

US recognizes Taiwan by January 20, 2029?

Will Trump set foot in Greenland by the end of July?

Will Trump step foot in Greenland before the USA controls a part of it?

• Update 2026-01-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will look at all markets in the topic and evaluate based on title, unless it takes too long. If checking all markets takes too long, the creator will use random sampling instead.