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Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2026, the World Bank classifies China as a high-income country. The World Bank defines high-income countries based on Gross National Income (GNI) per capita thresholds, which are updated annually. The classification for 2026 will be based on China's GNI per capita for 2025, as reported in the World Bank's country classifications by income level.
Background
As of 2023, the World Bank's threshold for high-income economies is a GNI per capita of $14,005 or more. (en.wikipedia.org) China's GNI per capita for 2023 was reported at $13,400, reflecting a 3.96% increase from 2022. (macrotrends.net) To achieve high-income status by 2026, China would need to sustain or accelerate this growth rate, considering the annual adjustments to the high-income threshold.
1,000@spiderduckpig The regular FY2027 World Bank classification has been released and lists China as upper-middle-income. I will wait through Dec. 31 in case the World Bank makes an extraordinary revision/change before the stated deadline.