MANIFOLD
China produces 3nm chips before 2027?
10
Ṁ1kṀ729
Dec 31
37%
chance

Resolves yes if China is able to produce <= 3 nm chips at a ~70% yield rate. Will settle to credible sources, such as SemiAnalysis reports. Company press reports would not count.

Considerations

  • "Yield rate" refers to the percentage of functioning chips produced from each silicon wafer. A 70% yield rate is considered reasonably good for semiconductor manufacturing.

  • Semiconductor production data can be sensitive and sometimes difficult to verify independently, particularly for Chinese manufacturers.

Market context
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AI
World
Economics
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Note that “yield” depends a lot on the size of the die. For example it’s a lot easier to achieve 70% yield on phone SoCs than datacentre AI chips. The more independent measure is defect density

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