China produces 3nm chips before 2027?
5
1kṀ5152026
36%
chance
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1W
1M
ALL
Resolves yes if China is able to produce <= 3 nm chips at a ~70% yield rate. Will settle to credible sources, such as SemiAnalysis reports. Company press reports would not count.
Considerations
"Yield rate" refers to the percentage of functioning chips produced from each silicon wafer. A 70% yield rate is considered reasonably good for semiconductor manufacturing.
Semiconductor production data can be sensitive and sometimes difficult to verify independently, particularly for Chinese manufacturers.
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