Does Taiwan count as enough ambiguity to resolve N/A?

@JonathanRay You mean right now?

@JoshuaWilkes Now, or if china annexed Taiwan and a lot of countries came out against it

@JonathanRay I am quite sure that when Scott wrote the question he didn't intend for it to immediately resolve NA, but he can comment to confirm that.

If China annexed Taiwan then unfortunately it would be appropriate to calculate China's GDP as including Taiwan's, IMO, but this would be a good point to clarify.

China's aging population indicates no, but the US's collapse of state capacity (on everything from policing to infrastructure) is also a nontrivial risk.

Between China's ongoing market collapse, the recent US-led technology sanctions targeting the Chinese semiconductor industry, and the ongoing demographic collapse caused by the One Child Policy, there's no reason to expect this to happen. China's headed for a depression, not explosive economic growth.

For a hard reference on the plausibility of this market resolving YES, note that China no longer claims overtaking of the US economy to be among their goals: https://www.newsweek.com/china-xi-jinping-economy-goal-growth-gdp-2035-us-1752707