Will China's nominal GDP exceed the U.S.'s before 2040?
23
70
1k
2040
38%
chance
Resolves to YES if China's nominal GDP exceeds that of the U.S. before 2040. If there is any ambiguity about which country should be called "China", or which should be called "the U.S.", this question will resolve N/A.
Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:
bought Ṁ15 of YES

Does Taiwan count as enough ambiguity to resolve N/A?

predicts NO

@JonathanRay You mean right now?

predicts YES

@JoshuaWilkes Now, or if china annexed Taiwan and a lot of countries came out against it

predicts NO

@JonathanRay I am quite sure that when Scott wrote the question he didn't intend for it to immediately resolve NA, but he can comment to confirm that.

If China annexed Taiwan then unfortunately it would be appropriate to calculate China's GDP as including Taiwan's, IMO, but this would be a good point to clarify.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

China's aging population indicates no, but the US's collapse of state capacity (on everything from policing to infrastructure) is also a nontrivial risk.

bought Ṁ75 of NO

Between China's ongoing market collapse, the recent US-led technology sanctions targeting the Chinese semiconductor industry, and the ongoing demographic collapse caused by the One Child Policy, there's no reason to expect this to happen. China's headed for a depression, not explosive economic growth.

For a hard reference on the plausibility of this market resolving YES, note that China no longer claims overtaking of the US economy to be among their goals: https://www.newsweek.com/china-xi-jinping-economy-goal-growth-gdp-2035-us-1752707

It'll happen.