MANIFOLD
Yet another large coordinated "exploding devices" attack before 2026?
23
Ṁ1kṀ12k
resolved Jan 30
Resolved
NO

I made this market before and it happened again within 24 hours. This market resolves YES if an attack like this happens a third time before 2026.

Here's the text from the previous market:

I don't think I've ever heard of an attack like the recent Lebanon pager explosions.

This resolves YES if there is any attack anywhere in the world involving:

  • At least 100 devices

  • Rigged, hacked or otherwise deliberately made to cause injury or death

  • The devices appear to be peaceful devices like phones or pagers, not weapons

  • Part of a coordinated attack by one group against another (i.e. 100 isolated murder attempts don't count)

  • Before Jan 1st 2026 (market closes later in case details take a while to be confirmed)

I'm also curious if this has ever happened before the Lebanon pager explosions, and if there's a name for this kind of attack. Let me know in the comments.

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@Paulf4db @mods Resolves NO, I think?

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