Will there be a large volcanic explosion before 2027?
Plus
26
Ṁ13882026
55%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves YES if, before 1st Jan 2027, there is a volcanic explosion of 5 or larger on the Volcanic Explosivity Index https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcanic_explosivity_index anywhere on Earth.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
@mariopasquato Wikipedia has an incomplete list, over the last century there’s been one-ish per decade. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_large_Holocene_volcanic_eruptions
Related questions
Related questions
Will there be a volcanic eruption of Volcanic Explosivity Index 7 or greater before 2075?
22% chance
Will there be a volcanic eruption of Volcanic Explosivity Index 5 or greater before 2035?
47% chance
Will the Blue Lagoon be destroyed in a volcanic eruption before the end of 2024?
28% chance
Will there be a volcanic eruption of Volcanic Explosivity Index 6 or greater before 2050?
34% chance
Will there be a volcano eruption with VEI >= 4 by the end of 2026?
22% chance
Will there be enough volcanic or seismic activity at Campi Flegrei in 2024 to lead to an evacuation?
37% chance
Will there be a Nuclear Explosion by 2030
76% chance
Will humans trigger a volcanic eruption by 2100?
40% chance
Will there be more than 30 New Volcano Eruptions in 2026?
72% chance
Will there be more than 30 New Volcano Eruptions in 2024?
82% chance