This market resolves YES if cyberattacks starting before July 1, 2027 cause any of the following:

1. A massive outage. Reuters, AP, BBC, Bloomberg, or the Financial Times report that the attacks cut off a combined total of at least 100 million people from the internet or from widely used online services for 72 hours or more.

2. A national emergency. The government of a G7 country (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK, or the US) declares a national emergency in response to disruption caused by the attacks. Standing declarations that just authorize sanctions or other general measures against cyber threats don’t count.

3. A stock exchange closure. NYSE, Nasdaq, the London Stock Exchange, Japan Exchange Group, or Euronext suspends trading for at least one full session because of the attacks.

4. A financial system emergency. The Federal Reserve, ECB, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Bank of Canada, or Bundesbank provides emergency liquidity explicitly because of the attacks, or a G7 national payment system (such as Fedwire, ACH, CHAPS, Faster Payments, T2, or BOJ-NET) is down for at least 24 hours straight.

The disruption has to be confirmed as the result of deliberate cyberattacks by CISA, the FBI, NCSC, ENISA, or a national CERT; by the affected organizations; by the government body behind one of the triggers above; or in incident reports from Mandiant, Microsoft, Google, CrowdStrike, or Palo Alto Unit 42.

Precautionary shutdowns don’t count unless actual attacks caused the disruption. Physical attacks, such as sabotage or military strikes, don’t count even if they take networks down.