Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if the individual who officially becomes the 2028 Democratic nominee for President of the United States refers to Israel's actions in Gaza or Palestine as a "genocide" (or "genocidal") at any point between their campaign announcement and the U.S. Presidential Election on November 7, 2028.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.

Key details and edge cases:

• Nominee definition: The "nominee" is the individual who officially secures the presidential nomination at the 2028 Democratic National Convention (DNC) or is otherwise officially designated as the Democratic Party's general election candidate.

• Eligible statements: The nominee must explicitly use the word "genocide" or "genocidal" to describe, characterize, or define Israel's military operations or policies in Gaza/Palestine.

• Explicit endorsement required: The nominee must directly endorse or apply the term. Passive references, neutral legal citations, or quoting others without endorsing the characterization (e.g., stating "The International Court of Justice is investigating claims of genocide" or "I understand why protestors are using the word genocide") will not suffice for a YES resolution.

• Verification: Resolution will be determined using credible, mainstream journalistic sources (such as Reuters or the Associated Press), or official public statements, transcripts, and social media posts directly attributable to the nominee.

Background

The rhetoric surrounding Israel's military actions in Gaza is a major point of tension within the Democratic Party. While several progressive members of the party have characterized Israel's campaign as a genocide, mainstream and establishment Democratic leadership have historically rejected the terminology. As the party prepares for a highly competitive 2028 presidential primary, foreign policy and U.S. aid to Israel are expected to remain central, polarizing issues for potential nominees.

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