This market resolves to the option that correctly identifies the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee and whether they win the 2028 U.S. presidential election.

• Democratic Nominee: The individual who officially secures the Democratic Party's presidential nomination at the 2028 Democratic National Convention (DNC) or is formally certified by the Democratic National Committee to appear on the general election ballot in November 2028.

• Winning the Presidency: The candidate will be treated as having won the 2028 presidential election once there is a clear consensus among major reputable news organizations that they are the president-elect. For this purpose, “clear consensus” means the Associated Press has called the race for the candidate and at least two of Reuters, the New York Times, CNN, Fox News, ABC News, CBS News, or NBC News have done the same.

Resolution Rules:

• Only one option will resolve YES; all other options will resolve NO.

• If the Democratic nominee is someone not explicitly listed in the options, the market will resolve to the appropriate "Someone else" option based on the general election outcome.

• If the presidential election is delayed, resolved via a contingent election in the House of Representatives, or decided by the courts, resolution will defer to whoever is ultimately sworn in as President on Inauguration Day.

• If a candidate becomes the Democratic nominee but is subsequently withdrawn, replaced, or removed from the general-election ballot:

  • If the Democratic Party formally selects another Democrat as its nominee, this market will resolve N/A.

  • If no replacement Democratic nominee is selected and a non-Democratic candidate is ultimately sworn in as President, the original nominee’s corresponding “that person DOES NOT WIN” option will resolve YES.

Background

The 2028 United States presidential election will take place on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. The Democratic National Committee has scheduled the 2028 Democratic National Convention for August 7–10, 2028, to select its presidential and vice-presidential nominees. Following the 2024 election, Donald Trump is term-limited under the 22nd Amendment, meaning the 2028 race will not feature an incumbent president. Prominent figures speculated as potential candidates for the Democratic nomination include governors, senators, and administrative officials, all represented in the option list.

This description was generated by AI and edited by the question author.