If The FED cuts, will the Dems win the presidency?
If The FED cuts, will the Dems win the presidency?
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The problem with this question is that correlation and causation is not the same.
They could cut rates and dems will win. But then did dems actually win because of them cutting rates or is it coincidence or caused by other factors?
The goal was just to gain an understanding of how the probability of Dems winning would be affected if interest rates get cut. Currently the market shows that Dems chances of winning increase 3 percent if rates get cut. That’s kinda interesting!
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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