Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
Will any non-astronaut be "commuting to the moon" before 2040?
2
Ṁ10kṀ2k
2039
25%
chance

https://fortune.com/2026/08/17/billionaire-founder-predicts-live-work-space-bezos-musk-altman-2030-moon/


This question will resolve Yes if any one non-astronaut works on Earth's moon for seven days or more before December 31st 2039. The exact form of labor is nonspecific, but they cannot be there for leisure. The person in question cannot be a public or private "astronaut" (or cosmonaut, etc.) as their primary profession, that is to say someone whose job is traversing outer space on specialized craft. Safety training, fitness tests, or other elements of space travel that would be insufficient for someone to be considered a professional astronaut are fine.

The spirit of this market is concerned with "factory workers," "miners," or other jobs, however elevated by local advanced automated tools, involving a physical commute to the moon to do labor. The duration can be seasonal, permanent, or have any other time structure as long as it involves at least seven days spent on the moon before market resolution; these days do not need to be contiguous. Time spent orbiting the moon does not count, but anything on or beneath its surface (or in any buildings thereon) does.

Feel free to ask clarifying questions in the comments.

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!