Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if humans successfully fly to the Moon (i.e., travel to lunar orbit or land on the lunar surface) before January 1, 2040. This includes crewed missions that orbit the Moon or land on it. Resolution will be confirmed via official announcements from space agencies (NASA, ESA, CNSA, etc.) or credible news reports from major outlets covering the mission.

Background

Artemis II is the first crewed mission to the vicinity of the Moon since Apollo 17 in 1972. Launch is scheduled for no earlier than February 5, 2026, with the 10-day mission carrying four astronauts on a free-return trajectory around the Moon and back to Earth. NASA officially delayed Artemis III to no earlier than 2027, which will see two astronauts transfer to a lunar lander, spend about 6.5 days on the surface, and perform at least two extravehicular activities before returning. The revised Artemis 3 timeline still keeps the United States ahead of China, which has said it plans to land astronauts on the moon by 2030.

Considerations

The second Trump administration's fiscal year 2026 budget proposal proposed canceling the SLS and Orion spacecraft after Artemis III due to cost concerns. This creates uncertainty around the long-term viability of the program, though near-term missions (Artemis II in 2026 and Artemis III in 2027) appear to have sufficient funding and momentum to proceed.