Will Russia run out of money?
22
2.2k
2030
19%
chance

This market resolves yes if:

  • Russia officialy defaults on its debt, whether internal or external. Refusing to pay debts to specific actors doesn't count if Russia believably claims it's for political rather than financial reasons (e.g. debts to "unfriendly" countries). UPD: It also doesn't count if Russia cannot pay a debt for technical reasons, despite having the money.

  • Russia does not officialy default, but is unable to pay a variety of significantly different parties. For example, missing or delayed payments to employees of specific state branches/in specific regions don't count; it has to be widespread.

  • Russia is forced to end the war against Ukraine (e.g. by suing for peace) because it cannot afford to continue for financial reasons.

The market resolves no on January 1st 2030, or if the war ends before that, without a positive resolution.

Please note that cases 2 and especially 3 are quite subjective. I am not an expert on state finances and will rely on the consensus of Western experts/media reports. Also, I will participate in the market, since the reason to create it was a discussion with @BTE.

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YES if any of the cases happen, or all three have to happen?

predicts NO

@rpominov Any one would be sufficient.

Russia has already defaulted once since the war started, hasn’t it?

predicts NO

@BTE Has it?

@PS technically yes, but that was before the market creation, so no problem here.

predicts NO

@BTE You're right, of course, I forgot about this one. However, I think it is undisputed that Russia didn't run out of money then, but rather was blocked from servicing its debts (and for this reason, it never accepted that as a default AFAIK).

I'm adding a clarification to the description, so thanks again for pointing this out.

What if the war ends but sanctions continue, and Russia defaults on its debts a few years later?

@brp >The market resolves no on January 1st 2030, or if the war ends before that, without a positive resolution.

So it resolves no.