Background

Russia's economy faces several structural challenges that could impact its long-term stability:

• Sanctions and Isolation: Russia is currently under extensive international sanctions due to the war in Ukraine, limiting access to global markets, technology, and financial systems.

• Military-Focused Economy: Russia operates a dual-speed economy that prioritizes military production over civilian sectors, creating economic imbalances.

• Resource Dependence: The economy remains heavily dependent on oil and gas exports, making it vulnerable to energy price fluctuations and global shifts toward renewable energy.

• Demographic Challenges: Russia faces a declining working-age population, which could strain economic growth and productivity over the coming decades.

• Inflation and Monetary Policy: The country has struggled with persistent inflation, requiring high interest rates that can constrain economic growth.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve as YES if Russia experiences an economic depression by the end of 2045. For the purpose of this market, an "economic depression" will be defined as:

• A severe and prolonged downturn in economic activity characterized by a decline in real GDP of at least 10% over a period of two years or more, OR

• A period of economic contraction lasting three or more years with unemployment rates above 10%.

The market will resolve based on widely accepted economic data from reputable sources such as the World Bank, IMF, or other recognized economic institutions.