I've seen some unconfirmed rumors of August 31 (https://tass.com/politics/1661211). There is also another website reporting (without citing a source) on a late August meeting (https://hungarytoday.hu/turkish-presidents-diplomatic-tour-to-start-in-hungary/).

I'm not going to change my bet because this is all still unverified information, but those that are more speculative might find it useful.

https://manifold.markets/SergiiNechuiviter/will-vladimir-putin-be-arrested-in

Will Vladimir Putin be arrested in visit Turkey in August 2023 (or a bit later)?

https://www.agenzianova.com/en/news/il-presidente-russo-putin-si-rechera-in-visita-in-turchia/ [link preview][markets](https://manifold.markets/embed/ShadowyZephyr/if-putins-visit-to-turkey-happens-w)

sold Ṁ23 of YES

An article with some of Erdogan's schedule for the next month:

Based on this travel tour he's doing it seems more likely now he might visit Putin outside of Turkey, so I'm selling some of my YES shares.

https://www.turkiyenewspaper.com/politics/16060

President Erdogan to visit Hungary, India and USA for meetings - Turkiye Newspaper

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will be visiting many countries with intense diplomatic traffic. Erdogan will make critical visits to Hungary, India, and the United States (US) in August and September.

predicted YES

https://tass.com/world/1659599

predicted YES

Putin is still keeping his cards close to his chest.
https://tass.com/politics/1657365
Russian press still saying "the plans are being made soon" but we don't know any more about them than we did before.

predicted NO

@ShadowyZephyr Remember when he used to just go wherever he wanted whenever he wanted? It wasn’t very long ago. Something has clearly changed.

predicted YES

@BTE Yeah, he's wanted by the ICC, that's what happened. Also his relationships with western countries that he at least was allowed to visit before have deterioriated even further.

predicted NO

@ShadowyZephyr turkey not a member of the ICC though

bought Ṁ25 of YES

@SebastianWorms Yeah so he can go there. I don't think he's that intent on it but Erdogan really wants it to happen and the west probably supports it as well.

predicted NO

@ShadowyZephyr Gorbachev only had to go to Crimea to be far enough from Moscow to be deposed. It’s too risky for him to go anywhere.

predicted YES

@BTE I don't understand the notion that everything will just fall apart in Russia. Gorbachev was a completely different situation, he had Stalinists trying to take him out, Yeltsin and other anti-communists, a bunch of other people on his ass, and almost no one in Russia or other associated states liked him.

There aren't any alternatives to Putin yet, and he has the popular support and the military support. That last one especially makes it pretty much impossible for him to be removed in such a manner.

The Wagner coup shows that he isn't in absolute control like he was before, but it still got shut down pretty quickly. If Russia's main military forces started to defect that would be a different situation.

@ShadowyZephyr for real

predicted NO

@ShadowyZephyr You don’t know anything about Putin’s current position with any of the people you just mentioned. He is paying enlisted men 5x what he is paying officers right now. That is unsustainable and will lead to military rebellion eventually. He can’t afford to keep the military officers happy for long. He is literally gonna run out of money once they run out of accounting gimmicks. There is zero path for him to rebuild the Russian economy no matter how the war plays out.

predicted NO

@BTE Do you have a source for the 5x pay difference?

I'm prepared to bet against a military rebellion and Russia running out of money in the foreseeable future.

predicted NO

@PS My bad, it’s actually 10x. https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-military-offers-recruits-10x-average-salary-to-fill-depleted-ranks-2023-5?amp

Russia: Military offers recruits 10x average salary to fill depleted ranks

Ukrainian Victims of War analysis found that the Russian military is offering big paydays to entice recruits via a popular jobs website.

predicted NO

@PS "In all my military service, I have never seen ordinary soldiers get more than the officers who command them," Yuri Netkachev, a retired lieutenant general, told Russian newspaper Nezavisimaya Gazeta.

predicted YES

@BTE Isn't that the way it should be? In that, hazard pay should dominate if you are risking your life...

predicted NO

@parhizj LMAO. Are the officers who are getting killed at unprecedented numbers getting raises?? Nope.

predicted NO

@BTE The first source says some military hires are paid 10x as much as the average Russian salary. That doesn't mean new recruits are paid 5x as much as officers.

The second one does have an ex-general stating some officers are paid several times less than newly mobilized personnel (although I think he means volunteers, surely the mobilized don't have to be paid much)

predicted YES

@BTE Are the officers getting killed at unprecedented rates compared to the grunts? I thought the trope was that its always the grunts that get killed disproportionately. Is that different this war, or, the trope was never true in the first place?

predicted NO

@parhizj It’s different. Generals are getting killed and that almost never happens.

predicted YES

@BTE Bizarre, but makes sense now after reading this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Russian_generals_killed_during_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine
"

UK intelligence attributed the deaths of senior commanders to their going to the field to personally lead operations to address "difficulties in command and control" and "faltering Russian performance on the front line."

predicted NO

@parhizj Hence why Surovkin and others are so pissed. They are being humiliated.