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Will Russia pay at least $1bn in reparations to Ukraine by Jan 1, 2026?
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@MartinRandall If the Russian government was not part of the agreement/treaty that established that, I would resolve No.
In case there is some (pretty unlikely as of today) agreement/treaty that involves Russian seized assets to be partially or fully used for reparations (or returned under Russian control conditional on paying reparations and some other guarantees), and Russia signs it, and Ukraine ends up getting the money then I would resolve Yes.
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