Will Russia pay at least $1bn in reparations to Ukraine by Jan 1, 2026?
Plus
22
Ṁ21152025
6%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Adjusted for inflation from the market create date.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
@MartinRandall If the Russian government was not part of the agreement/treaty that established that, I would resolve No.
In case there is some (pretty unlikely as of today) agreement/treaty that involves Russian seized assets to be partially or fully used for reparations (or returned under Russian control conditional on paying reparations and some other guarantees), and Russia signs it, and Ukraine ends up getting the money then I would resolve Yes.
Related questions
Related questions
Will Russia launch a RS-26 Rubezh missile at Ukraine before December 31, 2024?
40% chance
Will Russia pay any reparations to Ukraine by 2030?
20% chance
Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2026?
32% chance
Will Ukraine cede any of its territory to Russia by 2025? [150M subsidy]
7% chance
Will the Russia Ukraine conflict reach a conclusion by the end of 2026?
54% chance
Will the Russia Ukraine conflict reach a conclusion by the end of 2025?
50% chance
Will Ukraine and Russia have a cease-fire or peace before 2026?
58% chance
If Russia does NOT annex Ukraine before 2024, will Ukraine's 2030 real GDP be over 180bn USD (in 2020 US dollars)?
29% chance
Will Russia and Ukraine announce a ceasefire with an intended duration of at least 28 days before October 1st, 2025?
72% chance
[Metaculus] Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?
35% chance