Who will attack the rebellious island off their coast first, USA or China? This market will resolve yes if, for any reason, the US attacks Cuba before China attacks Taiwan. For the purpose of this market, an economic attack (blockade) does not count. An act of terrorism (bomb in a harbor) only counts if the US or China takes credit.

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if the United States attacks Cuba before China attacks Taiwan. For resolution purposes:

• Military attack means kinetic military action involving weapons, explosives, or direct force. Economic attacks such as blockades do not count.

• Terrorism only counts if the attacking nation (US or China) publicly takes credit for the action.

• Resolution will be determined by the date each attack occurs, with the first attack triggering resolution.

• Credible reporting from major international news outlets will serve as the primary source for verification.

Background

Following the US military capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in early January 2026, Cuba appears very much in the Trump administration's sights. Trump stated that American military intervention in Cuba was unnecessary because the island appears ready to fall on its own, though Trump has signed an executive order imposing tariffs on any goods from countries that sell or provide oil to Cuba, a move that could further cripple an island plagued by a deepening energy crisis.

Regarding Taiwan, China continues to make progress toward General Secretary Xi Jinping's 2027 "Centennial Military Building Goal" and associated warfighting capabilities against Taiwan. However, a Chinese attempt at blockading or invading Taiwan in 2026 is unlikely, with Beijing likely to persist with its toolkit of coercive actions to erode Taiwan's will and narrow its strategic options.