Before early voting starts? Or before Election Day proper?

Not trying to split hairs: I think there's a not-insignificant chance that Trump launches an attack after early voting but before election day, since there's a partisan difference in who votes when.

@LoganTurner Before November 3, 2026. I will add that clarification to the description, thanks for posting this

What counts as an attack?

@xjp A military attack. I will add the qualifier "military" to the description, thanks

@CommanderKeen Right, but there are all kinds of levels and categories of military attack. Where do you draw the line?

@xjp I am not sure about what levels or categories you are refering to. If you list them, then I will tell you if they fit

@CommanderKeen 1) A small group of covert operatives conduct sabotage, assassination, or kidnapping. 2) The US arms and directs a proxy group to attack Cuban targets. 3) Limited drone or missile strike. 4) Sustained bombing attacks over days or weeks. 5) Full blown invasion.

@xjp Thank you, that is very helpful. I would count 3, 4, 5 and not count 1 and 2, with two exceptions for 1 and 2:
if 1 or 2 are done overtly, under the banner of the US, then I would count them, too. I would also count them if they lead to open war, but in that case one of the others would probably apply, too.