Criteria of resolution: This market resolves YES if US armed forces conduct a publicly acknowledged military operation involving kinetic force in Cuba’s sovereign territory, meaning Cuban land, territorial sea, or national airspace.

For this market, “US armed forces” includes the Army, Marine Corps, Navy, Air Force, Space Force, and Coast Guard. Official U.S. sources describe territorial sea and the airspace above it as part of a state’s territory, and the standard breadth is up to 12 nautical miles.

This market resolves NO otherwise.

Exclusions:

Sanctions, embargoes, cyber operations, espionage, covert actions not publicly acknowledged, or threats without actual use of force.

Routine activity at Guantánamo Bay that does not involve kinetic force directed into Cuban sovereign territory.

Operations conducted with the Cuban government’s consent such as agreed humanitarian, rescue, or law-enforcement cooperation.

Transit through international waters or airspace, or operations only against vessels/aircraft outside Cuban territory.