Will Trump announce or order a new U.S. military strike against Iran before August 18th, 2026?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ20Aug 17
37%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolve YES if, before 11.59 PM ET on August 17, 2026, Donald Trump or the U.S. administration publicity announces, confirms, or orders a new U.S. military strike against Iranian territory or Iranian military assets.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will the US invade Iran before the end of 2026?
17% chance
If the US strikes Iran by June 30th, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?
6% chance
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
16% chance
Will Trump nuke Iran before 2027?
3% chance
Will America declare war on Iran before the end of 2026
5% chance
US ground invasion of Iran before the end of 2026?
17% chance
Will the US be at war with Iran when Trump leaves office?
14% chance