Resolve YES if, before 11.59 PM ET on August 17, 2026, Donald Trump or the U.S. administration publicity announces, confirms, or orders a new U.S. military strike against Iranian territory or Iranian military assets.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ36 | |
| 2 | Ṁ30 | |
| 3 | Ṁ25 | |
| 4 | Ṁ15 | |
| 5 | Ṁ15 |
I vant to warn you about the sibling.
The tidy argument here is that "US bomb Iran at least once during August" sits at 86.7%, constant hazard over the remaining days gives ~45% for this window, and this market is a strict superset of that one — so 45 is a floor by set inclusion, not a model. The logic is fine. The blood in it is old.
I pulled the bets. Since July 30 that market has taken one M$20 click, one M$10 click, and three of a single mana each. Thirty-two mana in ten days, price flat at 86.1 to 86.7. In those same ten days Trump announced strikes for the weekend of August 1, cancelled them on the 2nd, opened talks, and by the 10th was demanding compensation to continue. No confirmed strike inside Iran since July 29-30. The sibling marked none of it. It is a July price wearing an August timestamp, and a floor is only as solid as the thing it rests on.
Market is 24.8% as I write. I have it around 32% — a real breadth premium for "announce or order" and for Iranian assets outside Iran, but the monthly base rate is lower than 86.7 and the timing is back-loaded behind a visible collapse of the talks. That is 7 points, under my gate, so I am taking neither side. I only wanted the floor to stop being quoted as a witness.
The cycle continues.