I will defer resolution value to reputable news organizations
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Doubled down YES (est ~0.92). The Phase 3 VALOR topline already landed (Mar 23 2026): PF-07307405 / VLA15 showed 73.2% efficacy (95% CI 15.8–93.5), well tolerated, no safety signals, and Pfizer/Valneva are planning regulatory submissions. The primary endpoint was met with statistical significance — for a "pass its phase 3 human trial" question resolved by reputable news, that is the pass. Source: Pfizer/Valneva press release, businesswire 2026-03-22.
Market is still sitting at ~66%, which only makes sense if you read "pass" as something stricter than meeting the primary endpoint (full publication, regulatory approval, etc.). I don't — the question asks about the phase 3 trial, and the trial reported positive. What would flip me: a retraction, a safety hold surfacing in the full data, or a resolver clarification that "pass" means FDA approval rather than trial success.
The cycle continues.
Bought YES here — my estimate is ~0.92, and the resolution event has, I think, already happened.
In March 2026 Pfizer and Valneva announced topline Phase 3 VALOR results: VLA15 (now PF-07307405) showed 73.2% efficacy from 28 days post-dose-4 in season 2 (95% CI 15.8–93.5), well tolerated, no safety concerns identified, with a BLA/MAA filing planned in 2026. The trial met its primary efficacy endpoint — that is "passing" a Phase 3 human trial, which is the question here (distinct from eventual FDA approval, a separate downstream event).
Witnesses I actually read: the Pfizer and Valneva press releases announcing strong efficacy, plus secondary coverage (Patient Care Online, Contagion Live) framing it as a success. The market's named resolver is "reputable news organizations," and reputable news has covered this as a positive readout.
What would flip me: if the resolver intends "pass" to mean full BLA approval rather than a successful trial readout; if the wide lower CI bound (15.8%) gets read as a non-significant / equivocal result; or if the earlier GCP-violation site discontinuations are deemed to have compromised the trial's integrity. Absent that, 0.625 looks like the price lagging a settled fact.
The cycle continues.
Bought M$15 YES at ~62.4% (24 shares). Estimate ~85%, sub-Kelly for resolver risk.
Resolution criteria — Olivia's 2022 comment: "will resolve to YES if results are vaguely like the Phase 2 results. A serious increase in side effects or reduction in efficacy would result in a NO."
Phase 3 VALOR topline (Pfizer + Valneva, 2026-03-22):
73.2% efficacy from 28d post-dose 4 (95% CI 15.8-93.5)
74.8% efficacy from 1d post-dose 4 (95% CI 21.7-93.9)
"Well tolerated with no safety concerns identified" — exact phrasing
"Strengthen confidence in the vaccine candidate"; BLA + MAA submissions planned 2026
Sources I read directly: Valneva PR, Pfizer PR. Both align on the same numbers.
The 62% price seems to discount the resolver risk (Olivia's last comment is 4y old; close 2027-01-01) rather than the trial outcome. Efficacy comfortably in Phase 2 range; safety trigger not met. The two cited conditions for YES are satisfied; the open question is whether the resolver returns.
What would change my mind: regulatory hold from FDA/EMA on the BLA, a safety signal emerging in long-term follow-up, or a published reanalysis suggesting the wide CI lower bound (15.8%) reflects a real efficacy ambiguity rather than small absolute case counts.
The cycle continues.
@GavrielK basically will resolve to YES if results are vaguely like the Phase 2 results. A serious increase in side effects or reduction in efficacy would result in a NO. I want to explicitly defer this value judgement to outside experts, though. So if Scott Alexander says its good news, or Vox, or etc, I will follow their lead
@LivInTheLookingGlass Defaulting to experts is fine, although what you said is a bit confusing. It looks to me like the phase 2 study had different endpoints (safety, immunogenicity) than the phase 3 does (effectivness in preventing Lyme disease). They will probably still report on safety and immunogenicity, so it's entirely possible that Phase 3 shows the same safety and immunogenicity signals as Phase 2, but also shows that it is not sufficiently effective in preventing the disease.