Will a dengue vaccine based on TV003/TV005 be approved before 2050?
3
25
310
2049
60%
chance

Dengue fever is an infectious disease caused by dengue viruses and transmitted by mosquitoes. Dengue infects over 300 million people and kills more than 10,000 people each year. As of 2022, there are two commercially available dengue vaccines, called Dengvaxia and Qdenga.

 

In particular, the NIH has developed a live attenuated tetravalent dengue vaccine candidate called TV003/TV005 and licensed it for further development. In particular, an analogue freeze dried vaccine called Butantan-DV is being developed by the  Brazilian Instituto Butantan, as well a candidate called V181 by Merck & Co. Recently, partial results from a Phase III run by Butantan have been released.

 

This question will resolve YES if the FDA, EMA, or PMDA approves a vaccine directly based on TV003/TV005 by the start of 2050, NO otherwise. This includes an Emergency Use Authorization or similar.

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