On June 23rd, the Gates Foundation announced its partnership with Wellcome to co-sponsor the phase 3 trials of the M72/AS01E tuberculosis (TB) vaccine candidate[1]. The Gates Foundation will contribute 400 million USD, while Wellcome pledges 150 million USD.
The current TB vaccine is primarily effective in young children. However, the World Health Organization seeks a vaccine that also works for adolescents and adults.[2]
Should this vaccine prove safe and effective, it would represent a significant advancement in combatting one of the world's deadliest diseases.
This question resolves Yes if the phase 3 trials show an efficacy of 50% or higher for adolescants and adults.
If the trial uncovers severe downsides or side-effects, but still shows an efficacy of 50% or higher in the target group, it still resolves as Yes.
If the trial is never initiated or gets cancelled it resolves as N/A.
If the trial is stopped permanently for any reason it resolves as N/A.
If the trial is inconclusive or serious flaws are found it resolves as N/A.
In other words, I will only resolve Yes or No if the trial has been properly conducted. I'm interested in the probability that the vaccine actually works well.
[1] https://www.gatesfoundation.org/ideas/media-center/press-releases/2023/06/funding-commitment-m72-tb-vaccine-candidate
[2] https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789240064690
