Will there be a recession in the US within the next 12 months?
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Ṁ21kresolved Oct 16
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Close date updated to 2023-04-07 11:59 pm
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@OliverS I think it has been 12 months and no recession has been announced. Please can you resolve this NO, or let us know what you're thinking? Thanks.
How long will you wait for NBER to announce a recession before resolving @OliverS?
(and why not leave the market open in the meantime?)
@IsaacKing Since the poll started the US has had 2 quarters of economic contraction.
The classic definition of a recession.
Change the judge, definition or wait for more in-depth analyses but the posted GDP is posted GDP. It recessed. A recession...
@OliverS Can you please edit that into the market description so people actually see that stipulation?
@OliverS please clarify what you're using to determine resolution. If it's the standard NBER, then resolution shouldn't happen as 'No' until roughly September 2023, since they take a long time to officially declare recessions.
Assuming resolution criteria is NBER, although it would be nice to have clarity on that. The probability that a given 12-month window that does not start in a recession includes a recession is approximately 20% from eyeballing this graph: https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating - meaning on base rates this will resolve to NO.
The risk is slightly higher due to being "due" for one, and also the relatively high levels of inflation (which means that the federal reserve is more likely to deploy measures to curtail inflation at the expense of other market factors like employment rate).
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