Will a human astronaut land on the moon before 2027 ?
➕
Plus
98
Ṁ23k
2026
9%
chance

The Artemis3 mission is scheduled for 2025.

The chinese space program also is planning to send astronauts to the moon, although they are targeting a later date.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program#Proposed_missions

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Lunar_Exploration_Program#Upcoming_missions

By the end of 2026 if a human astronaut has landed on the moon this market will resolve YES.

It does not have to be the artemis mission, but it has to be a new mission (launched after this market was created).

an astronaut looking at earth as his rocket lands on the moon
Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

This other market would suggest 7%. Resolution criteria seem the same. So, one of these two markets is priced quite badly.

Buy more Yes people I dare you

At 55%, this seems very optimistic. The Artemis 3 timeline itself is unrealistic and I wouldn't use it as an anchor at all. I still expect Artemis 3 to be the next boots on the moon though.
Eric Berger's source estimates 2028 at the earliest. https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/11/the-oracle-who-predicted-slss-launch-in-2023-has-thoughts-about-artemis-iii/
Even in the hypothetical world where you go with better architectures than the whole SLS and NRHO Gateway detour, and everything goes better than expected, I wouldn't expect it until 2027.

China doesn't seem to have any plans before 2030. https://spacenews.com/chinese-crewed-moon-landing-possible-by-2030-says-senior-space-figure/

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules