Will there have been a noticeable sector-wide economic effect from a new AI technology by the end of 2023?
closes Dec 31

By new I mean put into widespread commercial use during 2023. The effect will need to impact the whole sector of an economy (e.g. car manufacturing, online advertising, education) in a way that is noticeable in at least one key economic measure (growth, productivity, employment, profits, etc.).

Based on the US economy and NAICS defined sectors or subsectors. NAICS codes used will be anything at the 2 digit level with 3/4 digit codes evaluated on a case by case basis

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LukasDay avatar
Lukas Daybought Ṁ350 of YES

Customer support agents using an AI tool to guide their conversations saw a nearly 14 percent increase in productivity, with 35 percent improvements for the lowest skilled and least experienced workers, and zero or small negative effects on the most experienced/most able workers, Erik Brynjolfsson, Danielle Li, and Lindsey R. Raymond report in Generative AI at Work (NBER Working Paper 31161).


MatthewRitter avatar
Matthew Ritter

@LukasDay I came here to post that, I but from the perspective of betting “NO“. this use case seems about as slam dunk as you could ask for, which makes the efffect size disappointingly small. Here is another angle from the paper:

An agent using the AI tool who had just two months’ tenure at the firm performed as well as an agent with six months’ tenure working without the tool.

It seems to be functioning as a very good auto-complete, not galaxy brain:

agents, who could participate in multiple chats at once, spent about 9 percent less time per chat, handled about 14 percent more chats per hour, and successfully resolved about 1.3 percent more chats overall.

So, maybe if there was instant, seamless, roll out across every low skill knowledge job we would see a bit of a bump, but as we think about the entire complex economy (and the fact that the system is already capacity constrained!) I just don’t see it happening

Fivelidz avatar
Five lidzis predicting YES at 47%
LukeHanks avatar
Luke Hanksis predicting NO at 58% (edited)

@Nostradamnedus Please expand on what method you plan on using to determine the correct resolution to this market. Doing so now will help avoid a bunch of arguments later.

After the year is over how will you determine whether "a new AI technology" had a "noticeable sector-wide economic effect"?

Nostradamnedus avatar
Nostradamnedusis predicting NO at 58% (edited)

@LukeHanks If no one has posted any evidence here then I'll see if there's a way to examine it systematically, using the NAICS definitions posted below.

JustNo avatar
JustNois predicting YES at 58%

@Nostradamnedus can you please add the NAICS level that you will count as a sector to the description? Maybe "anything at the 2 digit level" with 3/4 digit codes evaluated on a case by case basis?

Fivelidz avatar
Five lidzis predicting YES at 58%

@JustNo fiscal year Vs calendar year clarity might be good too.

Fivelidz avatar
Five lidzis predicting YES at 56%

@JustNo to get an idea on impact... Has it been proven under such a test that Amazon for example has had a significant impact on brick and mortar retail?

If we used Amazon in place of AI would this resolve yes under such criteria?

Nostradamnedus avatar
Nostradamnedusis predicting NO at 53%

@JustNo That sounds like a good criteria, will add it. Thanks!

Nostradamnedus avatar
Nostradamnedusis predicting NO at 53%

@Fivelidz I planned to use calendar year, but maybe these stats are mostly available for financial years.. Need to think about it.

JoshuaBlake avatar
Joshua Blakebought Ṁ100 of NO

Even if someone announced what the innovation is that causes this tomorrow, I doubt it would get rolled out across an industry by year end

Fivelidz avatar
Five lidzis predicting YES at 58%

@JoshuaBlake it doesn't have to be "rolled out" across and industry. It can be something like GPT-4 being widely available by students so they pay for less online tutoring and there is an impact on growth in that sector as a result of lower demand.

That would satisfy the yes conditions and be a positive resolution.

I think there could also be widespread economic impact on online advertising for example. Search engines not using AI will likely be negatively impacted as Bing and Google bard take up greater market share?

If bing has record growth against non AI based search engines could that resolve it as a yes?

It had a 15% user increase with the integration announcement.


LukasDay avatar
Lukas Dayis predicting NO at 58%

@Fivelidz - if there is an impact, who determines what made the impact?

Eg, if GPT-4 is released and in Q4 of 2023 the online tutoring sector comes out and says they saw a loss in revenue/lack of growth/decreased demand how will it be determined that it was GPT that caused the impact vs other confounders such as a softening economy, rising inflation, fewer people going to college, etc?

Like sure, the tutor companies could come out in their earnings report and say "hey, there was an impact and GPT is to blame". But just recently Walgreens said they were shutting down stores due to shoplifting (and definitely not because they overexpanded), but then later came back and said "Maybe we cried too much last year" in an earnings call. So clearly companies can't be trusted to accurately report what is impacting their business.


Fivelidz avatar
Five lidzis predicting YES at 58%


I think it's fair to think that AI having an economic impact at some point is certain but this market is concerned with proof of it occuring this year?

So what test needs to pass to say that it is unequivocally due to AI?

These following articles are about generative AI replacing a quarter of all creative jobs.



Even if this year we were to see significant reduction in employment in those jobs and the employers state it is due to using AI systems instead and broadly the explanation from employers is AI can do the job more cheaply, would you still deny this?

Would you say instead that these employers could be collectively having an ulterior motive in explaining culling their staff and argue confounding factors?

For a tutor company to admit that they are suffering due to AI is far more devastating than to suggest growth slowing due to virtually any other confounding factor. If across field the online tutoring sector drops; what "proof" of it being directly linked to AI would be needed?

It seems like a correlation Vs causation discussion but ultimately I think it will be found that the variable with the most impact is AI becoming widespread and the economic change can be reasonably attributed to it due to it.

The frustrating thing about this though is as you point out confounding variables like lower college attendance or the economy is hard to gauge for a field like online tutoring as it is such a recent sector.

Right now it seems that if papers were to come out to say a sector was incredibly likely to have been impacted by AI this could devolve into how nothing can be proven as there are confounding variables about everything. People even stating AI being the cause in the field themselves doesn't pass this test so what can?

By that rational I'd say this market can't resolve as NO either as it needs to be proven that that every noticeable sector change this year wasn't due to AI. It's a market that is YES or N/A but definitely can't resolve as NO as it can't be proved there wasn't a noticeable effect. I'm leaning to this as settling YES rather than N/A though as I think it will be unequivocal by the end of the year.

LukasDay avatar
Lukas Dayis predicting NO at 58%

@Fivelidz -

> So what test needs to pass to say that it is unequivocally due to AI?

I mean, the description is a little vague, but here's how I was interpreting the question:

Will there have been a noticeable NAICS sector-wide economic effect from widespread commercial use of AI Technology in fiscal year 2023 (1 October 2022 - 30 September 2023)?

There is ambiguity as to whether this effect needs to be seen in US economic sectors or other national economies are considered. One of my assumptions is that the question is specifically US focused and that market sectors are the 20 broad sectors (Table 2) defined by the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) [But again, ambiguity because the market description specifically mentions car manufacturing (NAICS 336100) which is technically a subsector Transportation Equipment Manufacturing (NAICS 336000) which is itself a subsector of the Manufacturing (31-33) sector.]

This market would resolve YES if there is a noticeable economic effect (positive or negative) in any NAICS defined sector or subsector that can be attributed to widespread commercial use of AI Technology. Attribution can come from a government source (such as Bureau of Labor Statistics), a reputable economic analyst (such as Goldman Sachs or Bloomberg), or if 90% or more companies in a defined sector file 10-Qs or 10-Ks that attributes the performance of some economic metric (revenue, employment, productivity, etc) to AI Technology.

The market would resolve NO if there is no performance attribution to AI Technology or if the economic effect was only seen in a minority of a defined subsector. (E.g., if Tesla sees a massive increase in productivity from AI Tech, but Ford, Audi, BMW, GM don't then the market resolves NO.)

@Nostradamnedus - thoughts?

Nostradamnedus avatar
Nostradamnedusis predicting NO at 58%

@LukasDay Thanks, this looks like a pretty good resolution criteria! We will use NAICS and the US economy.

LukasDay avatar
Lukas Dayis predicting NO at 58%

@Nostradamnedus - glad to help. Just for clarification, are we just considering the 20 main economic sectors (as seen in the other thread) or are we considering subsectors as well?

Nostradamnedus avatar
Nostradamnedusis predicting NO at 58%

@LukasDay I think the subsectors should be included as well as the original examples of car manufacturing, etc are on that level.

jacksonpolack avatar
jackson polackis predicting YES at 50%

Agree subsectors should be included

The NAICS Subsectos I'm confident have been impacted in spirit (i'm not sure how the numbers hash out) is: "Internet Publishing and Broadcasting (NAICS 516)"

GPT-4 is unequivocally better than most humans, including most employed humans, at the kind of copywriting and content generation much of internet publishing uses

I'm not sure if Motion Picture and Sound Recording Industries (NAICS 512) is affected that much this year, but it will be within the next few years.

JimAusman avatar
Jimis predicting NO at 52%

@Fivelidz Online tutoring is a whole sector of the economy? It doesn’t seem that way to me.

LukasDay avatar
Lukas Daybought Ṁ40 of NO


Wendy's is planning on rolling out drive-thru AI chatbot. They intend to start at a company store in Columbus, OH in June.

I'm still betting NO. Even if the rollout in OH is successful, I don't expect to see Wendy's rolling out AI ordering nationwide by Q4 of '23, much less the entirety of the fast food sector.

JustNo avatar
JustNois predicting YES at 58%

@LukasDay I strongly doubt drive through bots will have a a serious impact this year. That said, I'm still team yes.

JustNo avatar
JustNois predicting YES at 67%

The way he describes using chap gpt in this video is why I'm bullish on this market.


LukeHanks avatar
Luke Hanksis predicting NO at 58%

@JustNo That was a good video. I forgot why I was watching it and just kept watching.

JimAusman avatar
Jimis predicting NO at 51%

@JustNo I’ve been Rick Rolled! Thanks for the video, it was great!

JustNo avatar
JustNois predicting YES at 59%

Can anyone provide a gift link to this article? I suspect it's relevant:


JacobSkauvold avatar
Jacob Skauvoldis predicting NO at 59%
JustNo avatar
JustNobought Ṁ40 of YES

@JacobSkauvold how can you read that and predict no?

JustNo avatar
JustNois predicting YES at 59%

@JacobSkauvold also, thanks so much - sorry if that comes off as rude - I'm just genuinely confused.

JacobSkauvold avatar
Jacob Skauvoldis predicting NO at 65%

@JustNo Haven't read it yet. Will make sure to read it later and update accordingly.

JoshuaBlake avatar
Joshua Blakeis predicting NO at 63%

@JustNo one book got scooped is very far from a noticeable effect across the entire publishing industry

JustNo avatar
JustNois predicting YES at 57%

@JoshuaBlake I didn't ask why the market wasn't resolved, and I'm not arguing that it should be resolved on this basis - there's no good number quantifying the impact of new LLM or any other tech for the year, and no rush to resolve a market about the year in May. More to your point, the gist of the article is that this isn't an isolated phenomenon.

I am baffled that folks are buying no here at these prices and I'm curious at the thought process. From where I'm standing, it seems preposterous to say there's a 37% chance that no artificial intelligence product will have a noticeable, sector wide economic effect on any sector before the end of the year.

Any given exact prediction may be shakey, but you don't think publishing, visual media, online advertising (including search or breaking search into its own sector), software development, education, or a single other sector will see a noticeable impact?

LukasDay avatar
Lukas Dayis predicting NO at 57%

@JustNo - how are you defining "sector"? Cause strictly speaking, there's no such thing as an "online advertising" or "search" sector.

JustNo avatar
JustNois predicting YES at 57%

@LukasDay that's a great question I don't have an answer for, but I'd point out that online advertising is given as an example in the descriptor. Is there an official list of sectors somewhere?

LukasDay avatar
Lukas Dayis predicting NO at 58% (edited)

@JustNo - North America (Canada, US, Mexico) uses the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) for breaking down the economy into sectors/subsectors.


[Which, after reviewing my own source I guess Web Search (519290) is a sector. Online advertising is just rolled in with Advertising Agencies (541810)]

That's how I've been defining "sectors" usually. Although using this sources comes with the ambiguity of what is a sector and what is a subsector.

Like, car manufacturing is a subsector of transportation manufacturing which is a subsector of the Manufacturing sector. Are these considered three different sectors? Or all they rolled into the Manufacturing sector? If we see a noticeable impact from AI Tech in car manufacturing but not transportation manufacturing how does the question resolve? (That's a problem for the market creator tho)

(Related, this is why I'm betting NO. Depending on how economic sectors are defined, even if one or two companies see massive impacts from AI Tech, will it be enough to shift the entire sector as a whole in a noticable way? Depending how how large the sector in question is, unlikely)

LukasDay avatar
Lukas Dayis predicting NO at 58%

@JustNo - Here's the 20 main economic sectors according to BLS


Nostradamnedus avatar
Nostradamnedusis predicting NO at 58%

@LukasDay NAICS looks pretty good.

RonWiener avatar
Ron Wieneris predicting YES at 54%

Writers strike is another sign of a noticeable impact IMO

Nostradamnedus avatar
Nostradamnedusis predicting NO at 58%

@RonWiener Needs to make a statistical impact.

RonWiener avatar
Ron Wieneris predicting YES at 59%

@Nostradamnedus Previous writer stirke had such impacts, bigger question is do you attribute the strike to AI

JustNo avatar
JustNois predicting YES at 59%

@RonWiener @Nostradamnedus I don't think it can, as of yet, be attributed to AI. AI is included, but it feels like an after thought as of yet.

AI isn't mentioned in this piece from Vulture in their section on "What are the Demands"

Unless it becomes a publicized fact that AI is a hang up, and it substantially increases the duration of the strike I don't think the strike can be attributed to AI.

Fivelidz avatar
Five lidzis predicting YES at 59%

@JustNo there's a number of articles now that seems to indicate that AI is a hang up. Just Google "writers strike GPT AI"

AlexanderLeCampbell avatar
Alexander Campbell

How is this resolved? What is noticeable impact?

Nostradamnedus avatar
Nostradamnedusis predicting NO at 58%

@AlexanderLeCampbell there should be a change in key statistics, such as employment or revenue, to a degree that is clearly noticeable from normal variation and can be attributed to AI.

Fivelidz avatar
Five lidzbought Ṁ60 of YES

@LachlanMunro yeah I think this should satisfy that it's significantly impacted the online education/tutoring sector.

JustNo avatar
JustNobought Ṁ100 of YES

@Fivelidz I think it's reasonable to hold off resolving until a broader and more substantial impact has been documented. A single company doesn't quite constitute a sector. That said, I'll be continuing to buy pretty much as many Yes shares as I can afford - I'd say up to 90% at least - because I think it will be very clear by year-end.

Fivelidz avatar
Five lidzis predicting YES at 63%

@JustNo might be easier to document the overall impact it has had during 2023 after 2023 then. Might make the resolution date a bit tricky tbh.

Fivelidz avatar
Five lidzis predicting YES at 63%

@Fivelidz keyword is noticeable I guess.

JustNo avatar
JustNois predicting YES at 57%

@Fivelidz The closing date isn't necessarily the resolution date (: but yea, I don't think it's going to be an issue.

JustNo avatar
JustNois predicting YES at 38%

Not an argument for resolution, but an interesting data point: In this weeks Risky Business (Infosec Podcast Episode) the sponsor guest Brian Dye, Corelight’s CEO, discusses how they've implemented GPT-4 based context explanations for their system alerts -- because that was what they saw their most savvy customers already doing.

https://risky.biz/RB703/ - minute 42 for the interview.

xxx avatar

hasn't it already destroyed digital art?

horse avatar

@xxx It's affected basically all digital art communities, but as far as I can tell, it hasn't had major quantifiable economic effects on digital art as an industry.

PipFoweraker avatar
Pip Fowerakerbought Ṁ250 of NO

@horse Agreed. For there to be a big impact you'd need to see a big impact on people where the production of art is / was already providing substantial income, and it's unlikely that many people working on in-flight projects are going to adopt new tech stacks or workflows midflight - so even as they start training up or using tools in-house, it's people looking to move from hobbyist or amateur to pro that are going to have challenges getting through the barrier-to-entry of reasonably well paid art.

Fivelidz avatar
Five lidzis predicting YES at 56%

@PipFoweraker But it has an impact on growth of the sector?

If there were more jobs in the digital art field year by year until the new AI models have come out though existing artists may have a job for a while it's still has affected demand and competition.

A big impact can just be rapid growth stopping/slowing not necessarily receding right?

YoavTzfati avatar
Yoav Tzfatibought Ṁ30 of YES

Bet yes because Copilot and ChatGPT are already making a significant impact on software development, and it isn't even the best use case. I think translation and customer support for example will see very big changes

PipFoweraker avatar
Pip Fowerakerbought Ṁ50 of NO

@YoavTzfati I'm still sticking with NO - I think for it to scale appropriately by the end of the year it will need to be adopted by large orgs, and the discussions I've seen from engineering, security, risk, compliance people etc inside them suggests an adoption curve pushing into 2024 before the sum effects would hit the 'noticeable' threshold. Although I'm thinking if I'm wrong it'll probably be in a field like advertising where the lifecycle of campaigns and deployments are much shorter. Good argument though!

Fivelidz avatar
Five lidzbought Ṁ30 of YES

@PipFoweraker It doesn't have to be implemented by a company to have significant impact in a sector.

Just using chat GPT-4 is viable for many to use instead of getting an online tutor, website building or legal advice. Reducing demand in those areas will impact growth in those industries.

JamesRomeril avatar
James Romeril

We already see this with lots of money moving into AI. If nothing else, the semiconductor industry has seen huge growth that can be attributed to AI hype.

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