This bet is about the impact of AI art on the graphic design labor market in the US.

Graphic designer labor demand may decrease, and one line of reasoning for why this would occur is as follows:

If you think that net demand for graphic designers will go 

 50% or more in the period from 2022 to 2025, choose 

 (as in: yes I think that demand will decrease 50% or more).

If you think that that the net demand for graphic designers will 

 50% or more in that period, choose NO (as in: no I do not think demand will decrease more than 50%).

So for instance, if you think demand will actually rise, choose NO.

For more details on how "net demand" is defined, and context for the question, read onwards.

The net demand is the number of graphic designers, multiplied by the graphic designer annual wage.

For instance, the starting demand point is a function of:

And thus the net demand would be computed the following way (and is approximately equivalent to the total amount of money paid to graphic designers in the US in 2022):

Note that inflation is not factored in, so if inflation adjusted demand falls 90%, but we have yearly inflation of 100%, the market would still resolve to NO. This decision was made because I am lazy.

In summary, if graphic designers in the US are collectively paid 

in 2025 (in 2025 dollars), according to BLS statistics, this market will resolve to 

The reason the resolution date for this market is set to August of 2026 is due to the delay in the release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

While new BLS data has not yet been released, I did just read a paper from August 2023 which suggests that in the 5 month period between December 2022, and April 2023, the number of freelancer jobs dropped 2% and earnings dropped 5.2%.

The Short-Term Effects of Generative Artificial Intelligence on Employment: Evidence from an Online Labor Market. Xiang Hui, Oren Reshef, Luofeng Zhou. (cesifo.org)

Is AI actually useful. Patrick Boyle. (youtube.com)

In addition, we find that offering high-quality service does not mitigate the negative effect of AI on freelancers, and in fact present suggestive evidence that top employees are disproportionately hurt by AI.

The BLS data has been released for 2023, and things are looking good for graphic designers and artists!

The annual wage of graphic designers in 2023 was: $

The mean number of graphic designers in 2023 was: 

The result is that from 2022 to 2023, net demand for graphic designers more or less stayed the same - perhaps even increasing slightly.

The BLS data has been released for 2024. Things aren't looking as good for graphic designers and artists, but also they're not looking anywhere close to bad enough that if the trend continues, this market will resolve to YES.

The annual wage of graphic designers in 2024 was:

The mean number of graphic designers in 2024 was: 

The result is that from 2023 to 2024, the wage of graphic designers rose (this market isn't factoring in inflation, but I would guess the inflation adjusted wage remained fairly constant), 

whereas the number of graphic designers fell from 60k (2023) to 54.9k (2024) - a reduction of 8.5%.

It is out of scope for this analysis to attempt to see whether this reduction in employment is attributable to AI impacts on graphic design, or broader economic trends effecting all employment sectors.

Of course, if this specific group saw a massive reduction (eg: > 50%) in demand, but electricians remained stable, that would be a good signal that AI is having an outsized impact on sectors that it is capable of automating.