Will some U.S. accountants be negatively affected financially due to AI by end of 2025?
49%
chance

Requires at least 3 articles from traditionally reputable news organizations reporting that some U.S. accountants have lost income, job security, or hiring velocity as a result of AI-based automation.

I won't be proactively searching for such articles - I will need to come across them organically or they can be posted in the comments / sent to me via Twitter message or other DM.

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CarsonGale avatar
Carson Gale

I'm surprised that this is the most popular of my "AI-affecting-careers" markets. Why do more people on Manifold have something to say about accountants than artists/lawyers/doctors/bankers/consultants/software engineers, etc?

KatjaGrace avatar
Katja Graceis predicting NO at 48%

@CarsonGale it was shown to me on the front page, whereas others were not I think (presumably because it was already more popular for some reason)

KCS avatar
KCSis predicting YES at 47%

@CarsonGale This one showed up in my explore tab.

Mira avatar
Mirabought Ṁ29 of NO

A lot of the reason you hire an accountant is because they have liability, insurance, and reputation for trust. So maybe they would use a language model to prepare reports or something, but I would expect that the accountants would be in control, much like their choice to use a spreadsheet doesn't cause anyone to be replaced.

This is different from e.g. artists, where "only the output matters" for many cases.

Adam avatar
Adam

@Mira yes, but there are still a lot of "retail" accountants, dealing mainly with middle class and UMC families, who have been negatively affected for years by non-ai automation and will be impacted in the future as well.

the best chances of "no" here revolve around either 1) the trend not being reported on, or 2) turbotax (and others') tax prep tools not counting as "AI"

CarsonGale avatar
Carson Gale